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MONTHLY BOND LETTER

DECEMBER 2019

The last three recessions have been the result of bursting financial bubbles. Presently, it is difficult to identify a financial asset in speculative territory that is large enough to tip the economy into recession and cause a crisis. We discuss this topic in our Monthly Bond Letter.

*ENGLISH VERSION WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY

NOVEMBER 2019

Combining global monetary stimulus, the fiscal thrust in China and Japan and the possibility of a trade agreement between the United States and China, the outcome could be favourable for an economic growth next year. You will find more details in this edition of the Monthly.

OCTOBER 2019

The United States and China have concluded a partial trade agreement, easing long-standing uncertainty in financial markets. In addition, the Federal Reserve also reduced its policy rate for the third time this year. What will be the consequences of these events on the financial markets?

SEPTEMBER 2019

Several central bankers have cut rates this year as a preemptive measure to mitigate the risks of a trade war. Is it still the right stimulus tool? We cover this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.

AUGUST 2019

The yield curve inversion is a leading indicator of recessions. Does this market signal have the same strength in this current environment? We will try to answer this question in this Monthly Bond Letter.

JULY 2019

The Federal Reserve finally caved to constant pressure from President Trump, who keeps saying that his central banker is damaging his country's economy with a high policy rate. Yet Jerome Powell points to trade tensions as a source of uncertainty. We discuss this subject in this issue of the Monthly.

JUNE 2019

The Federal Reserve seems to be quietly setting the table for a rate cut this year, perhaps as early as July. Are rates too high or is it the U.S. dollar that is too strong? We try to answer this question in this edition of our Monthly Bond Letter.

MAY 2019

Trade tensions increased considerably in May, particularly with China. However, it was the decision to impose tariffs on Mexican products in retaliation for illegal immigration that caused confusion among investors. Powerless in the face of these tariffs, investors are trying to force the Fed to lend a hand. This edition of the Monthly covers these topics and more.

APRIL 2019

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% rate in the first quarter, the unemployment rate (3.6%) is at its lowest level since 1969, the stock market is close to its historical high and China is stimulating its economy. Nevertheless, recession fears continue to haunt investors. We discuss this subject in our Monthly publication.

MARCH 2019

The combination of the Fed’s dovish comments and the latest manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index in Europe and China have pushed investors to anticipate a rate cut in the future, forcing an inverted  yield curve. Should we be concerned? We discuss this subject in this month's issue.

FEBRUARY 2019

Central bankers have turned more dovish recently, but rate normalization could reappear in the second half of the year. China has just adopted a series of stimulus measures that will contribute to global growth and raise commodity prices. We cover these topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.

JANUARY 2019

December has passed, long live January! Indeed, there is no better proof that January’s asset returns to illustrate that December’s volatility was temporary and reflected a change in investors' perception of risk. We discuss this subject in this month’s issue.

DECEMBER 2018

Investor opinion turned around in the fourth quarter due to a cascade of events beyond investor control. They have therefore turned to the institution they have most often influenced in the last 30 years, the Fed. We discuss market volatility in our Monthly Publication.

NOVEMBER 2018

Investors are more focused on Trump’s tweets than on economic fundamentals. Yet the president knows that a strong economy is essential for his re-election. We are experiencing volatility at the end of a cycle, but this one is not over yet. We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.

OCTOBER 2018

In the month of October, some events have combined to increase volatility in the financial market. However, our assessment of the economic situation and the monetary and fiscal policies in place remain positive. We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.

SEPTEMBER 2018

The greatest threat to the Canadian economy was removed in the last hour of the quarter. Trump has finally done what he does best, divide and conquer. We discuss the economic and financial implications of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in our Monthly Bond Letter.

AUGUST 2018

When an economy’s demand is stimulated by tax cuts and there is no excess production capacity, the result is usually inflationary. We discuss this topic in our Monthly Bond Letter.

JULY 2018

The US economy recorded its best performance in nearly four years under Trump's tax reform and tariffs. Some people have moved their consumption forward to avoid paying tariffs. We discuss this subject and more in our Monthly publication.

JUNE 2018

Trade tensions between the United States and a multitude of trading partners affected financial markets at the end of the quarter. Will the recent retaliation threats from the United States have serious economic consequences? We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.

MAY 2018

The political imbroglio in Italy created a slight concussion on the financial markets at the end of the month. Is this a resumption of the European crisis or a momentary event that will not deflect the direction of the markets? We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.

APRIL 2018

Household disposable income is expected to grow, courtesy of Trump's tax reform and labor market strength. The budget deficit created will have to be financed by a large flow of bonds, at the same time as the key interest rates are rising, an unusual situation.

MARCH 2018

After starting a NAFTA renegotiation and imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports for some countries, the Trump administration has once again tackled international trade, targeting China this time. We discuss this topic and more in this Monthly Bond Letter.

FEBRUARY 2018

As the global economy turns the page on a stellar year, the US administration could be throwing cold water on growth by announcing punitive global tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. We discuss the consequences of this decision in this monthly publication.

JANUARY 2018

The US economy is strengthening and the Trump administration's tax plan is adding fuel when it’s not required. Risky assets continued to grow in January, but experiencing turbulence in early February. Should we worry? 

SPECIAL PUBLICATION

The ageing population in the Western countries is upon us, what will be the economic and financial consequences of these demographic changes?

DECEMBER 2017

The majority of leading economic indicators such as jobless claims, new orders and cyclical spending show sustained growth. Given the shortage of skilled labor, inflation could surprise the Fed and force them to raise rates further.

NOVEMBER 2017

The Canadian and US economies are in full swing, supported by a full-employment labor market which is fueling household spending. The shortage of skilled labor in Canada is starting to put upward pressure on wages. We discuss this topic and more in our Monthly Bond Letter.

OCTOBER 2017

Using a baseball analogy, the economy and financial markets are currently in the eighth inning, the game is drawing to an end, but it can also go into overtime. We discuss the economic environment and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.

SEPTEMBER 2017

The Trump administration seeks to further stimulate the economy by announcing a tax reform plan that should be financed through economic expansion, according to leaders. Will it pass the Senate approval? We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.

AUGUST 2017

On September 5, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate for a second time this summer. Now that the Bank has withdrawn the two cuts introduced after the fall in oil prices, will it pursue its restrictive monetary policy? We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.

SPECIAL PUBLICATION

Since the end of the Financial Crisis, central banks have multiplied their efforts and have stepped out of the conventional framework to revive their economies. Is monetary policy still the appropriate tool?

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