MONTHLY BOND LETTER
Following an aggressive tightening, not seen since the 1980s, it is now time to slow down and assess the impact of the latest hikes on the economy. Is this a sign that the tightening is over and that banks will be soon cutting rates? We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The Federal Reserve has never been able to initiate monetary tightening without creating economic or financial disruption. It is hard to believe that 2022 will be any different. Please fasten your seat belts, we could be in for some turbulence. We cover this topic and much more in our Monthly Bond Letter.
We've all seen a restaurant or a retail business close due to lack of staff. In fact, the "we're hiring" signs are in such high demand that they must also be in short supply. While discussing with many people, the most common question that arises is : where are the Quebec workers?
"We have supply problems", "there are delivery delays" or "this product is out of stock", these are some of the phrases we hear recently during our shopping trips to the malls. But here is a new shortage; workers. We discuss this and many other topics in this issue of our Monthly Bond Letter.
Even if the risks associated with the presidential election are removed, the insurrection at the capitol has shown us that trumpalism is still alive and dangerous. How will the Bank of Canada respond to the economic disruption caused by the second wave of Covid in the country? We cover these topics in this edition of our Monthly Bond Letter.
U.S. voters have rejected Donald Trump's abrasive and narcissistic personality as president, but do not appear to be giving the Democratic Party carte blanche as the balance of power in Congress will be decided on January 5 in Georgia. We discuss the impact of the U.S. elections on financial markets in our Monthly Bond Letter.
We are experiencing an atypical recession. Preventive health measures are reducing production while household disposable income and savings have soared, courtesy of generous government programs. What are the consequences of such an environment? We discuss these issues in our Monthly Bond Letter.
In an effort to reduce the spread of the virus and its effects on public health, the majority of governments around the world have adopted containment measures that are putting the global economy into an clinically induced coma. Are we going to see a structural change after this crisis or will it be business as usual like the last 20 years? This and other topics are covered in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The partial agreement between China and the United States combined with monetary easing by 28 central banks in 2019 and fiscal stimulus in some countries, paves the way for a global recovery in 2020. This picture was valid until the coronavirus came along with its economic disruption. We discuss this topic in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The last three recessions have been the result of bursting financial bubbles. Presently, it is difficult to identify a financial asset in speculative territory that is large enough to tip the economy into recession and cause a crisis. We discuss this topic in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The United States and China have concluded a partial trade agreement, easing long-standing uncertainty in financial markets. In addition, the Federal Reserve also reduced its policy rate for the third time this year. What will be the consequences of these events on the financial markets?
The Federal Reserve finally caved to constant pressure from President Trump, who keeps saying that his central banker is damaging his country's economy with a high policy rate. Yet Jerome Powell points to trade tensions as a source of uncertainty. We discuss this subject in this issue of the Monthly.
Trade tensions increased considerably in May, particularly with China. However, it was the decision to impose tariffs on Mexican products in retaliation for illegal immigration that caused confusion among investors. Powerless in the face of these tariffs, investors are trying to force the Fed to lend a hand. This edition of the Monthly covers these topics and more.
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% rate in the first quarter, the unemployment rate (3.6%) is at its lowest level since 1969, the stock market is close to its historical high and China is stimulating its economy. Nevertheless, recession fears continue to haunt investors. We discuss this subject in our Monthly publication.
The combination of the Fed’s dovish comments and the latest manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index in Europe and China have pushed investors to anticipate a rate cut in the future, forcing an inverted yield curve. Should we be concerned? We discuss this subject in this month's issue.
Central bankers have turned more dovish recently, but rate normalization could reappear in the second half of the year. China has just adopted a series of stimulus measures that will contribute to global growth and raise commodity prices. We cover these topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
Investors are more focused on Trump’s tweets than on economic fundamentals. Yet the president knows that a strong economy is essential for his re-election. We are experiencing volatility at the end of a cycle, but this one is not over yet. We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.