MONTHLY BOND LETTER
Following an aggressive tightening, not seen since the 1980s, it is now time to slow down and assess the impact of the latest hikes on the economy. Is this a sign that the tightening is over and that banks will be soon cutting rates? We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
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The United Kingdom has taught us that governments cannot strongly stimulate their economy during a period of inflation without suffering serious consequences. We discuss this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
Central banks have been getting more hawkish in their fight against inflation by indicating that monetary restraint will inflict some pain on the economy. We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
Canada was the first industrialized country to raise its rate by 0.50% this year, will it also be the first to do 0.75%? We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The Bank of Canada is the first central bank in the industrialized world to raise its policy rate by 0.50% during this period of monetary tightening, but it won't be the only one and it won't be the last time either. We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The war in Ukraine will cause a supply shock that may put additional pressure on prices. This will require central banks to speed up the rate hikes to make up the ground lost with their inaction over the past year. We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The humanitarian crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine is overwhelming and the economic consequences of this conflict are beginning to be felt around the world. We discuss this conflict and other issues in our Monthly Bond Letter.
2022 will be a transition year in the conduct of monetary policy across the majority of industrialized countries. We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The Federal Reserve has never been able to initiate monetary tightening without creating economic or financial disruption. It is hard to believe that 2022 will be any different. Please fasten your seat belts, we could be in for some turbulence. We cover this topic and much more in our Monthly Bond Letter.
We've all seen a restaurant or a retail business close due to lack of staff. In fact, the "we're hiring" signs are in such high demand that they must also be in short supply. While discussing with many people, the most common question that arises is : where are the Quebec workers?
Inflation stems from a global supply problem that can’t keep up with strong demand supported by overly accommodative policies, it is time for central banks to correct the situation. We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
Central bankers are increasingly aware that the monetary stimulus in place is ineffective in addressing disruptions in the global supply chain. We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
More and more central bankers are beginning to prepare financial markets for a possible tapering of monetary stimulus. However, the rise of the delta variant around the world could disrupt these plans. We discuss this and more in our Monthly Bond Letter.
There seems to be a difference of opinion within the Federal Reserve Committee. Some members want to accelerate the normalization of interest rates while others are still advocating a more patient approach. We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
"We have supply problems", "there are delivery delays" or "this product is out of stock", these are some of the phrases we hear recently during our shopping trips to the malls. But here is a new shortage; workers. We discuss this and many other topics in this issue of our Monthly Bond Letter.
The debate is on. Will the inflation we are seeing everywhere be temporary or are we in the midst of a structural change that will drive price growth over the longer term? We discuss this topic and many others in our Monthly Bond Letter.
An increase in demand in an environment where supply is limited due to disruptions in the global supply chain creates shortages, the perfect recipe for inflation. We discuss this topic and many others in out Monthly Bond Letter.
The sharp rise in bond yields around the world can be interpreted as a sign of increased market confidence in global growth prospects. We discuss this topic and many others in out Monthly Bond Letter.
The Gamestop drama highlighted the risks associated with an overly accommodating monetary policy and a generous fiscal policy. We discuss this topic in our Monthly Bond Letter.
Even if the risks associated with the presidential election are removed, the insurrection at the capitol has shown us that trumpalism is still alive and dangerous. How will the Bank of Canada respond to the economic disruption caused by the second wave of Covid in the country? We cover these topics in this edition of our Monthly Bond Letter.
The new vaccines with high efficacy rates allow investors to look forward to 2021 with more enthusiasm and pockets full of government transfers to invade restaurants once the restrictions are lifted. You will find more details in this edition of the Monthly.
U.S. voters have rejected Donald Trump's abrasive and narcissistic personality as president, but do not appear to be giving the Democratic Party carte blanche as the balance of power in Congress will be decided on January 5 in Georgia. We discuss the impact of the U.S. elections on financial markets in our Monthly Bond Letter.
President Trump's insistence on ballot rigging and widespread electoral fraud could result in legal challenges if he loses narrowly and raise the level of uncertainty for investors. You will find more details in this edition of the Monthly.
We are experiencing an atypical recession. Preventive health measures are reducing production while household disposable income and savings have soared, courtesy of generous government programs. What are the consequences of such an environment? We discuss these issues in our Monthly Bond Letter.
Central banks work with governments to fund their support programs. Modern monetary theory adopted by some Democrats is already at our doorstep. We discuss this topic in our Monthly Bond Letter.
Central banks have a clear message: we will do whatever it takes for as long as necessary. How do we get out of such a promise without collateral damage? We discuss this topic in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The gap is widening between the economy and the stock market, which is ignoring several risk factors that have emerged recently. We discuss this topic and many others in tour Monthly Bond Letter.
In an effort to reduce the spread of the virus and its effects on public health, the majority of governments around the world have adopted containment measures that are putting the global economy into an clinically induced coma. Are we going to see a structural change after this crisis or will it be business as usual like the last 20 years? This and other topics are covered in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The COVID-19 crisis has greatly disrupted the financial markets in recent weeks. We discuss the consequences of this public health crisis and the measures used to mitigate the economic fallout in this issue of the Monthly and in our special publication.
The partial agreement between China and the United States combined with monetary easing by 28 central banks in 2019 and fiscal stimulus in some countries, paves the way for a global recovery in 2020. This picture was valid until the coronavirus came along with its economic disruption. We discuss this topic in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The last three recessions have been the result of bursting financial bubbles. Presently, it is difficult to identify a financial asset in speculative territory that is large enough to tip the economy into recession and cause a crisis. We discuss this topic in our Monthly Bond Letter.
Combining global monetary stimulus, the fiscal thrust in China and Japan and the possibility of a trade agreement between the United States and China, the outcome could be favourable for an economic growth next year. You will find more details in this edition of the Monthly.
The United States and China have concluded a partial trade agreement, easing long-standing uncertainty in financial markets. In addition, the Federal Reserve also reduced its policy rate for the third time this year. What will be the consequences of these events on the financial markets?
Several central bankers have cut rates this year as a preemptive measure to mitigate the risks of a trade war. Is it still the right stimulus tool? We cover this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The yield curve inversion is a leading indicator of recessions. Does this market signal have the same strength in this current environment? We will try to answer this question in this Monthly Bond Letter.
The Federal Reserve finally caved to constant pressure from President Trump, who keeps saying that his central banker is damaging his country's economy with a high policy rate. Yet Jerome Powell points to trade tensions as a source of uncertainty. We discuss this subject in this issue of the Monthly.
The Federal Reserve seems to be quietly setting the table for a rate cut this year, perhaps as early as July. Are rates too high or is it the U.S. dollar that is too strong? We try to answer this question in this edition of our Monthly Bond Letter.
Trade tensions increased considerably in May, particularly with China. However, it was the decision to impose tariffs on Mexican products in retaliation for illegal immigration that caused confusion among investors. Powerless in the face of these tariffs, investors are trying to force the Fed to lend a hand. This edition of the Monthly covers these topics and more.
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% rate in the first quarter, the unemployment rate (3.6%) is at its lowest level since 1969, the stock market is close to its historical high and China is stimulating its economy. Nevertheless, recession fears continue to haunt investors. We discuss this subject in our Monthly publication.
The combination of the Fed’s dovish comments and the latest manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index in Europe and China have pushed investors to anticipate a rate cut in the future, forcing an inverted yield curve. Should we be concerned? We discuss this subject in this month's issue.
Central bankers have turned more dovish recently, but rate normalization could reappear in the second half of the year. China has just adopted a series of stimulus measures that will contribute to global growth and raise commodity prices. We cover these topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
December has passed, long live January! Indeed, there is no better proof that January’s asset returns to illustrate that December’s volatility was temporary and reflected a change in investors' perception of risk. We discuss this subject in this month’s issue.
Investor opinion turned around in the fourth quarter due to a cascade of events beyond investor control. They have therefore turned to the institution they have most often influenced in the last 30 years, the Fed. We discuss market volatility in our Monthly Publication.
Investors are more focused on Trump’s tweets than on economic fundamentals. Yet the president knows that a strong economy is essential for his re-election. We are experiencing volatility at the end of a cycle, but this one is not over yet. We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.
In the month of October, some events have combined to increase volatility in the financial market. However, our assessment of the economic situation and the monetary and fiscal policies in place remain positive. We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The greatest threat to the Canadian economy was removed in the last hour of the quarter. Trump has finally done what he does best, divide and conquer. We discuss the economic and financial implications of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in our Monthly Bond Letter.
When an economy’s demand is stimulated by tax cuts and there is no excess production capacity, the result is usually inflationary. We discuss this topic in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The US economy recorded its best performance in nearly four years under Trump's tax reform and tariffs. Some people have moved their consumption forward to avoid paying tariffs. We discuss this subject and more in our Monthly publication.
Trade tensions between the United States and a multitude of trading partners affected financial markets at the end of the quarter. Will the recent retaliation threats from the United States have serious economic consequences? We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The political imbroglio in Italy created a slight concussion on the financial markets at the end of the month. Is this a resumption of the European crisis or a momentary event that will not deflect the direction of the markets? We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.
Household disposable income is expected to grow, courtesy of Trump's tax reform and labor market strength. The budget deficit created will have to be financed by a large flow of bonds, at the same time as the key interest rates are rising, an unusual situation.
After starting a NAFTA renegotiation and imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports for some countries, the Trump administration has once again tackled international trade, targeting China this time. We discuss this topic and more in this Monthly Bond Letter.
As the global economy turns the page on a stellar year, the US administration could be throwing cold water on growth by announcing punitive global tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. We discuss the consequences of this decision in this monthly publication.
The US economy is strengthening and the Trump administration's tax plan is adding fuel when it’s not required. Risky assets continued to grow in January, but experiencing turbulence in early February. Should we worry?
The majority of leading economic indicators such as jobless claims, new orders and cyclical spending show sustained growth. Given the shortage of skilled labor, inflation could surprise the Fed and force them to raise rates further.
The Canadian and US economies are in full swing, supported by a full-employment labor market which is fueling household spending. The shortage of skilled labor in Canada is starting to put upward pressure on wages. We discuss this topic and more in our Monthly Bond Letter.
Using a baseball analogy, the economy and financial markets are currently in the eighth inning, the game is drawing to an end, but it can also go into overtime. We discuss the economic environment and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.
The Trump administration seeks to further stimulate the economy by announcing a tax reform plan that should be financed through economic expansion, according to leaders. Will it pass the Senate approval? We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.
On September 5, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate for a second time this summer. Now that the Bank has withdrawn the two cuts introduced after the fall in oil prices, will it pursue its restrictive monetary policy? We discuss this subject in our Monthly Bond Letter.
Since the end of the Financial Crisis, central banks have multiplied their efforts and have stepped out of the conventional framework to revive their economies. Is monetary policy still the appropriate tool?